Covington vs Masvidal tomorrow night...who wins and what's the key?

By Patrick Akuagwu  |  March 4, 2022  |  2,380 Comments

Their story is well known: once-close friends (and even former roommates) turned sworn enemies. Both have risen to prominence among the welterweight, and their hatred for each other has grown inextricably with their success. As a result, their rivalry is currently one of the fiercest and most authentic the UFC has seen.

Everything was discussed in a press conference before their fight this Saturday at UFC 272, which is more than just a fight.

Before their fight, Masvidal and Covington light 'flames.'

Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington were clear examples of how fireworks can be projected without using the literal term. However, with the history between both fighters, the previous confrontation left a fairly intense taste of what was to come in the UFC 272 which will take place on March 5th.

"Old friends, bitter rivals," as the fight in Las Vegas, Nevada, has been dubbed, had Masvidal and Covington throwing fire during the press conference from the first second they set foot on the platform after the native of Cuba surprised everyone with a briefcase that said more than a thousand words. It is that he kept a screen and a card from his rival in the said golden briefcase, which showed everyone that it was burned and put up for sale, pointing out the hostile environment that exists with the one who was his great friend.

A relationship that turned from admiration to hatred will have to be resolved next Saturday because it is undeniable that neither of them wants to rekindle their friendship, quite the opposite since Masvidal himself put Covington in check by making fun of their good times together.

"Masvidal is my best friend; I love him more than I love myself," mocked 'Gamebred.' "You used to live in my house."

However, Colby immediately responded by accusing him of causing his family's bankruptcy by failing to pay household expenses.

"You're a clown; you have to thank me for being here," the American exclaimed on several occasions. "I lived with your children in Maritza's house, not in yours." Do you remember being a father? You didn't even take care of the expenses.

More insults, no responses

Similarly, as the minutes passed, the tension increased without pause. Even the audience noticed it because none received a concrete answer to their questions while the two fighters constantly insulted each other.

"This is your final fight; you can no longer be here." "You're still sleepy from your last fight; it's a surprise you're sitting right now," Covington said.

On the other hand, Masvidal was not far behind and finished by threatening his former best friend, whom he believes will be wiped off the map.

"I'm taking you to the hospital." "I'll take you back to the casinos on Saturday," he said.


Dana White, president of the UFC, captured the reactions of all those present by not having a single opportunity to answer questions; for what he stated, this combat is unique because of everything at stake; it is a personal battle.

"This is the first time we've had a relationship like this: roommates, best friends, and now rivals," he explained.

Point-by-point breakdown of Jorge Masvidal vs Colby Covington

Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal will finally settle their beef this Saturday, March 5th, at UFC 272.

Aside from the hype generated by the two men's trash-talking and animosity, this fight is, above all, an exciting sporting confrontation. Both fighters are in their prime and have very different but equally effective styles. In addition, they are both members of the top 10 in the category (Covington is #2, Masvidal is #8). Another intriguing parallel is that the two sworn adversaries recently bowed to the same man, defending champion Kamaru Usman.

The main event of UFC 272 is not a title fight, but the stakes are high, perhaps even higher than in a title fight.

We analyzed and compared the two men's arsenal's three fundamental aspects (striking, wrestling, and submission).

The striking

Covington is a well-rounded fighter, but his striking is his most obvious weakness. His record demonstrates this: only three of his 19 fights were won by TKO, with Colby failing to knock out his opponents.

On the other hand, Masvidal is a very complete and dangerous striker. The man who made a name for himself through his street fights won 16 fights by KO or TKO. He defeated UFC heavyweights such as Donald Cerrone, Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz. The Miami native, who is very comfortable in English boxing, has since expanded his arsenal, as he demonstrated against Nate Diaz, where his kicks caused severe problems for his opponent.

As demonstrated in his 2019 fight against Nate Diaz, Jorge Masvidal is a terrible puncher.

A less talented striker than Masvidal, Covington compensates for his lack of power and explosiveness with a highly high stroke volume. He is not looking for the perfect shot but instead engages in gradual undermining. Masvidal has excellent punching accuracy (48 per cent of his shots hit the target), whereas Covington has adequate accuracy (38 per cent). Like most good strikers, Masvidal is also very good at avoiding punches, avoiding 65 percent of his opponents' punches.

These figures speak for themselves: if the fight is fought standing, Masvidal risks inflicting significant damage on his opponents.

  • Jorge Masvidal has an advantage.

The fighting

As previously stated, if the fight is on their feet, Masvidal should easily overpower Covington, but it will most likely be challenging.

Covington is an outstanding fighter, arguably the best in the welterweight division and possibly the best in UFC history. In addition, he won the most prestigious wrestling competitions in America as a college wrestler.

Colby Covington is an exceptional wrestler, which gives him an advantage in his fights.

Covington averages four takedowns per round in a three-round fight (more than one takedown each round). This figure puts him on par with Khabib Nurmagomedov, another excellent wrestler.

Masvidal is also no slouch for wrestling, as he has more takedowns than his opponent. However, this statistic is somewhat skewed because Masvidal only attempts the takedown if he is confident of success, which is not the case with Covington, who systematically attempts to bring his opponents to the ground. Masvidal has also been taken down less frequently than his opponent, but this statistic is skewed as well: who would attempt a takedown when he is known to be an exceptional wrestler? This is not the case with Masvidal, an excellent striker and thus less dangerous on the ground.

Covington is far superior to Masvidal in every way of wrestling.

  • Colby Covington has an advantage.


Neither Covington nor Masvidal are known to be exceptional in submissions.

Despite this, Covington appears to have a slight advantage over his opponent, as he has won four fights by submission, which is twice as many as Masvidal. Furthermore, he attempted more submissions during his career than Covington but succeeded in fewer.

Nonetheless, it's worth noting that Masvidal excels at defending submissions. Despite facing experts such as Nate Diaz, Demian Maia, and Donald Cerrone in his 50 fights, "Gamebred" has only had two submission losses (all three black belts in jiu -Brazilian Jitsu).

In a strict sense, the two men are not experts on the ground. Nonetheless, due to his wrestling background and knowledge of ground combat, Colby Covington appears to be better on the ground than Masvidal... even if the latter was able to resist the best.

  • Covington has an advantage.

Prediction for the fight between Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal

Masvidal is used to losing, but that hasn't stopped him from beating the odds multiple times (Darren Till and Ben Askren are witnesses to this). Although he occasionally successfully reversed the situation, You cannot expect these reversals to become the norm. The pre-fight ribs must contain some truth (which gives Covington the favorite).

Except for Usman, Covington has consistently dominated his opponents from start to finish. His wearing style exhausts his opponents, who cannot compete with his volume of strikes and exceptional cardio. As a result, Masvidal will be under constant pressure against a wrestler of Covington's caliber as an opponent brings him against the cage to begin slow wear and tear.

To overcome Covington, Masvidal must bet on his striking. But Covington has a rock chin and has never been knocked out. Difficult to decide the winner.

So who do you think will win the match? you can share your analysis and prediction in the comments section.

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